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Uttarakhand Budget Analysis 2020-21

Uttarakhand Budget Analysis 2020-21

The Chief Minister, Mr. Trivendra Singh Rawat, presented the Budget for Uttarakhand for the financial year 2020-21 on March 4, 2020.

Budget Highlights

Policy Highlights

Uttarakhand’s EconomyGSDP:  The growth rate of Uttarakhand’s GSDP (at constant prices) is estimated to be 6.9% in 2018-19, a decline from the 9.8% growth rate in 2016-17, and 7.8% growth rate in 2017-18.
 Sectors:  Agriculture, Industry, and Services are estimated to contribute 10%, 52%, and 38%, respectively to the state’s economy in 2019-20.  Both agriculture and industry sectors have seen a decline in their growth over the last few years.
 Unemployment:  According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (2017-18), Uttarakhand had an unemployment rate of 7.6%, compared to the all-India unemployment rate of 6.1%.  The female unemployment rate in Uttarakhand is 10.7%, which is much higher than the all-India female unemployment rate of 5.7%.
Figure 1:  Growth in GSDP and sectors in Uttarakhand (year-on-year, at 2011-12 constant prices)Sources: Uttarakhand MTFP Statement 2020-21; PRS.
Note: Industry includes manufacturing and construction.  Figures for 2018-19 are Advanced Estimates. 

Budget Estimates for 2020-21

Table 1: Budget 2020-21 – Key figures (in Rs crore)

Items2018-19 Actuals2019-20 Budgeted2019-20 Revised% change from BE 2019-20 to RE 2019-202020-21 Budgeted% change from RE 2019-20 to BE 2020-21
Total Expenditure48,79448,66445,082-7.4%53,52718.7%
A. Receipts (except borrowings)31,24338,98935,532-8.9%42,47419.5%
B. Borrowings15,4489,6906,490-33.0%9,95053.3%
Total Receipts (A+B)46,69148,67942,022-13.7%52,42424.8%
Revenue Balance-9802321-8.3%50137.6%
As % of GSDP-0.40%0.01%0.01% 0.02% 
Fiscal Deficit7,3216,7986,673-1.8%7,55013.1%
As % of GSDP2.98%2.58%2.49% 2.57% 
Primary Deficit2,8461,4661,5364.8%1,6587.9%
As % of GSDP1.16%0.56%0.57% 0.56% 

Notes: BE is Budget Estimate; RE is Revised Estimate.  Positive numbers for revenue balance indicate revenue surplus, negative numbers indicate revenue deficit.  GSDP for 2020-21 is Rs 2,93,488 crore.  GSDP for 2019-20 BE and 2019-20 RE are Rs 2,63,233 crore and Rs 2,68,025 crore, respectively. 

Sources: Uttarakhand Annual Financial Statement 2020-21, Uttarakhand Medium Term Fiscal Policy Statement 2020-21; PRS.

Expenditure in 2020-21

Debt ServicingIn 2020-21, Uttarakhand is expected to spend Rs 9,396 crore on servicing its debt.  This is 17% higher than the revised estimates of 2019-20.  This includes Rs 3,503 crore towards repaying loans, and Rs 5,892 crore towards making interest payments.

Table 2: Expenditure budget 2020-21 (in Rs crore)

Items2018-19 Actuals2019-20 Budgeted2019-20 Revised% change from BE 2019-20 to RE 2019-202020-21 Budgeted% change from RE 2019-20 to BE 2020-21
Capital Expenditure16,5989,7319,600-1.4%11,13716.0%
of which Capital Outlay6,1846,5726,494-1.2%7,38313.7%
Revenue Expenditure32,19638,93335,482-8.9%42,39019.5%
Total Expenditure48,79448,66445,082-7.4%53,52718.7%
A. Debt Repayment10,2302,8762,8760.0%3,50321.8%
B. Interest Payments4,4755,3325,137-3.7%5,89214.7%
Debt Servicing (A+B)14,7058,2098,014-2.4%9,39617.2%

Note: Capital outlay denotes expenditure which leads to creation of assets.  BE is Budget Estimate; RE is Revised Estimate.

Sources: Uttarakhand Annual Financial Statement 2020-21; PRS. 

Sectoral expenditure in 2020-21

The sectors listed below account for 60% of the total budgeted expenditure of Uttarakhand in 2020-21.  A comparison of Uttarakhand’s expenditure on key sectors with that by other states can be found in Annexure 1.

Table 3: Sector-wise expenditure for Uttarakhand Budget 2020-21 (in Rs crore)

Sector2018-19Actuals2019-20Budgeted2019-20Revised2020-21Budgeted% change from RE 2019-20 to BE 2020-21Budget provisions for 2020-21
Education, Sports, Arts, and Culture7,4388,7587,8029,38520%Rs 3,131 crore and Rs 4,737 crore have been allocated towards elementary education and secondary education, respectively.
 Rs 620 crore has been allocated towards higher education.
Agriculture and allied activities3,4833,3252,8693,40119%Rs 240 crore has been allocated towards assistance to sugar mills for clearing dues of sugarcane farmers.
Rural Development3,1033,1542,9103,21711%Rs 1,072 crore has been allocated for the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana and Rs 267 crore has been allocated towards MGNREGS.
Water Supply, Sanitation, Housing and Urban Development1,2671,8791,8383,12170%Rs 134 crore and Rs 123 crore have been allocated towards the Jal Jeevan Mission and Smart City Missions, respectively.
Social Welfare and Nutrition1,9712,5992,1362,75029%Rs 505 crore has been allocated towards the Integrated Child Development Scheme.
Health and Family Welfare2,0962,6432,0822,68029%Rs 381 crore has been allocated for the National Health Mission.
 Rs 100 crore have been allocated for the Atal Ayushman Uttarakhand Yojana.
Transport1,6861,7161,8762,12313%Rs 295 crore has been allocated for land acquisition for developing Jolly Grant airport, Dehradun into an international airport.
Police1,7941,8941,7752,09418%Rs 1,196 crore has been allocated towards the District Police.
Public Works9191,2811,0241,20117%Rs 597 crore has been allocated for capital outlay on public works.
% of total expenditure62%60%58%60%  

Sources: Uttarakhand Budget Speech, Annual Financial Statement and Demand for Grants 2020-21; PRS.

Committed expenditure:  Committed expenditure of a state typically includes expenditure on payment of salaries, pensions, and interest.  A larger proportion of budget allocated for committed expenditure items limits the state’s flexibility to decide on other expenditure priorities such as capital investments.  In 2020-21, the state is estimated to spend Rs 28,104 crore on committed expenditure, i.e. payment of salaries, pensions, and interest.  This is 18% higher than the revised estimate of 2019-20 (Rs 23,816 crore).  Committed liabilities form nearly two-third (66%) of state’s revenue receipts.  This implies that the state has 34% of its revenue receipts left for all other expenditure.  Any additional expenditure will be met by the state through borrowings.

Table 4: Committed Expenditure for the state in 2020-21 (in Rs crore)

Item2018-19 Actuals2019-20 Budgeted2019-20 Revised% change from BE 2019-20 to RE 2019-202020-21 Budgeted% change from RE 2019-20 to BE 2020-21
Salaries12,90014,51412,937-10.9%15,90723.0%
Pensions5,3965,9435,743-3.4%6,3059.8%
Interest4,4755,3325,137-3.7%5,89214.7%
Committed Expenditure22,77125,78923,816-7.6%28,10418.0%

Sources:  Uttarakhand Annual Financial Statement 2020-21; PRS.

Receipts in 2020-21

Table 5: Break up of state government receipts (Rs crore)

Items2018-19 Actuals2019-20 Budgeted2019-20 Revised% change from BE 2019-20 to RE 2019-202020-21 Budgeted% change from RE 2019-20 to BE 2020-21
State’s Own Tax      12,188      14,737      12,449-15.5%       13,76110.5%
State’s Own Non-Tax       3,310       4,255       4,94216.2%         3,539-28.4%
Share in Central Taxes       8,012       8,885       7,521-15.4%         8,65715.1%
Grants-in-aid from Centre       7,707      11,079      10,591-4.4%       16,48255.6%
Total Revenue Receipts31,21638,95535,503-8.9%       42,43919.5%
Borrowings      15,448       9,690       6,490-33.0%         9,95053.3%
Other receipts            27            34            29-13.3%             3517.5%
Total Capital Receipts      15,475       9,724       6,519-33.0%         9,98553.2%
Total Receipts46,69148,67942,022-13.7%       52,42424.8%

Sources: Uttarakhand Annual Financial Statement 2020-21; PRS.

Table 6:  Major sources of state’s own-tax revenue (in Rs crore)

Items2018-19 Actuals2019-20Budgeted2019-20 Revised% change from BE 19-20 to RE 19-202020-21 Budgeted% change from RE 19-20 to BE 20-21% of Revenue Receipts in 20-21
State GST        4,802        6,256        4,918-21.4%        5,3869.5%12.7%
State Excise Duty        2,871        3,048        3,0480.0%        3,40011.6%8.0%
Sales Tax and VAT        1,883        2,353        1,813-22.9%        1,9708.6%4.6%
Stamps Duty and Registration Fees        1,015        1,341        1,151-14.2%        1,2498.6%2.9%
Taxes on Vehicles           909           965           9650.0%          9801.6%2.3%
Taxes and Duties on Electricity           506           440           220-50.0%          500127.2%1.2%
Land Revenue            34            35            350.0%            26-25.9%0.1%
GST Compensation Grants        2,037        3,017        3,0170.0%        3,57118.3%8.4%

Sources: Uttarakhand Annual Financial Statement 2020-21, Uttarakhand Detailed Revenue Receipts 2020-21; PRS.

State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) is the largest component of the state’s tax revenue.  It is expected to generate Rs 5,386 crore in 2020-21.  This is a 9.5% increase from the revised estimate of 2019-20.  SGST comprises 12.7% of the revenue receipts for the year 2020-21.
 In 2020-21, Uttarakhand is expected to generate Rs 3,400 crore from state excise and Rs 1,970 crore from sales tax.  The revenue generated from these items is estimated to exceed the revised estimates of 2019-20 by 11.6%, and 8.6%, respectively.
GST Compensation:  The GST (Compensation to States) Act, 2017 guarantees states compensation for five years (till 2022) for any revenue loss arising due to GST implementation.  The Act guarantees states a 14% annual growth on their revenue which was subsumed under GST.  If the GST revenue of a state does not match the guaranteed growth, compensation grants are provided to meet the shortfall.Uttarakhand has estimated GST compensation grants of Rs 3,571 crore for 2020-21, which is a 18% increase over the revised estimate of 2019-20 (Rs 3,017 crore).  Note that an increase in the compensation requirement of the state reflects a further decrease in the GST revenue growth rate, as compared to the 14% growth proposed under the Act.

Deficits, Debts and FRBM Targets for 2020-21

The Uttarakhand Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2005 provides annual targets to progressively reduce the outstanding liabilities, revenue deficit, and fiscal deficit of the state government. 

Revenue deficit to revenue surplus: In 2019-20, the state is estimated to have a revenue surplus of Rs 21 crore.  This is a change in the state’s revenue balance from a revenue deficit of Rs 980 crore in 2018-19.This is because of an estimated increase of 13.7% in revenue receipts in 2019-20, as compared to the previous year.  In comparison, the state’s revenue expenditure is estimated to increase by 10.2% during the same period.

Revenue deficit:  It is the excess of revenue expenditure over revenue receipts.  A revenue deficit implies that the government needs to borrow in order to finance its expenses which do not create capital assets.  The budget estimates a revenue surplus of Rs 50 crore (or 0.02% of GSDP) in 2020-21.  This implies that revenue receipts are expected to be slightly higher than revenue expenditure, resulting in a revenue surplus.  In 2019-20, the state had estimated a revenue surplus of Rs 21 crore, as per the revised estimates.

Fiscal deficit:  It is the excess of total expenditure over total receipts.  This gap is filled by borrowings by the state government and leads to an increase in total liabilities.  In 2020-21, fiscal deficit is estimated to be Rs 7,550 crore, which is 2.6% of the GSDP.  In 2019-20, as per the revised figures, the fiscal deficit is estimated at Rs 6,673 crore or 2.5% of GSDP.  These estimates are within than the 3% limit as per the FRBM Act. 

Outstanding Liabilities:  Outstanding liabilities is the accumulation of borrowings over the years.  In 2020-21, the state’s outstanding liabilities are expected to be 24.4% of the GSDP.  This is higher than the 20% limit suggested by the FRBM Review Committee in 2017 for the cumulative debt of states.  The budget also estimates targets of outstanding liabilities for the coming years.  It has estimated the outstanding liabilities to increase to 26.3% of the GSDP by 2023-24.  

Table 7: Budget targets for deficits for Uttarakhand in 2020-21 (% of GSDP)

YearRevenueFiscalOutstanding Liabilities
Deficit (-)/Surplus (+)Deficit (-)/Surplus (+)  
2018-19 (Actual)-0.4%-3.0%23.6%
2019-20 (RE)0.0%-2.5%24.1%
2020-210.0%-2.6%24.4%
2021-220.0%-2.7%24.9%
2022-230.0%-2.8%25.6%
2023-240.0%-3.0%26.3%

Sources: Uttarakhand Budget Documents 2020-21
Note: RE means Revised Estimate.  Figures for 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24 are budget targets.

Figures 2 and 3 show the trend in deficits and outstanding liabilities targets from 2018-19 to 2022-23.

Figure 2: Revenue and Fiscal Balance(as % of GSDP)Sources: Uttarakhand MTFP Statement 2020-21; PRS.
Note: Positive numbers indicate surplus, negative indicate deficit.  Figures for 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 are budget targets. 
Figure 3: Outstanding debt (as % of GSDP)Sources: Uttarakhand MTFP Statement 2020-21; PRS.
Note: RE is Revised Estimate.  Figures for 2020-21, 2021-22 and 2022-23 are budget targets.

Annexure 1: Comparison of states’ expenditure on key sectors

The graphs below compare Uttarakhand’s expenditure on six key sectors as a proportion of its total expenditure (revenue expenditure + capital outlay) on all sectors.  The average for a sector indicates the average expenditure in that sector by 29 states as per their budget estimates of 2019-20.[1] 

Note: 2018-19, 2019-20 (BE), 2019-20 (RE), and 2020-21 (BE) figures are for Uttarakhand.

Source: Annual Financial Statement (2019-20 and 2020-21), various state budgets; PRS.

Annexure 2: 15th Finance Commission’s recommendations for 2020-21

The 15th Finance Commission’s (15th FC) report for the financial year 2020-21 was tabled in Parliament on February 1, 2020.  The 15th FC recommended a 41% share for states in the central government’s tax revenue in 2020-21, a 1% decrease from the 42% share recommended by the 14th FC (2015-20).  The 1% decrease is to provide funds to the newly formed union territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh from the share of the central government.  The 15th FC also proposed revised criteria for determining the share of individual states.

Table 8 shows the share of states in the central government’s tax revenue[1], as per the recommendations of the 14th FC for 2015-20 and the 15th FC for 2020-21.  The 15th FC has recommended a 0.45% share for Uttarakhand in the centre’s tax revenue for 2020-21 (a marginal increase from the 0.44% share recommended by the 14th FC for 2015-20).  This implies that out of every Rs 100 of centre’s tax revenue in 2020-21, Uttarakhand will receive Rs 0.45.  Table 8 also shows the estimated devolution to states by the centre for 2019-20 and 2020-21 (in Rs crore).

Table 8: Share of states in Centre’s taxes (recommendations by 14th and 15th Finance Commission)

StateShare of states in centre’s tax revenueDevolution to states by the centre
14th FC (2015-20)15th FC (2020-21)% change2019-20 RE2020-21 BE% change
Andhra Pradesh1.811.69-7%28,24232,23814%
Arunachal Pradesh0.580.7224%8,98813,80254%
Assam1.391.28-8%21,72124,55313%
Bihar4.064.132%63,40678,89624%
Chhattisgarh1.291.49%20,20626,80333%
Goa0.160.160%2,4803,02722%
Gujarat1.31.397%20,23226,64632%
Haryana0.460.44-4%7,1128,48519%
Himachal Pradesh0.30.3310%4,6786,26634%
Jammu and Kashmir0.7812,171
Jharkhand1.321.363%20,59325,98026%
Karnataka1.981.49-25%30,91928,591-8%
Kerala1.050.8-24%16,40115,237-7%
Madhya Pradesh3.173.232%49,51861,84125%
Maharashtra2.322.529%36,22048,10933%
Manipur0.260.2912%4,0485,63039%
Meghalaya0.270.3115%4,2125,99942%
Mizoram0.190.2111%3,0183,96831%
Nagaland0.210.2310%3,2674,49338%
Odisha1.951.9-3%30,45336,30019%
Punjab0.660.7311%10,34614,02136%
Rajasthan2.312.456%36,04946,88630%
Sikkim0.150.167%2,4083,04326%
Tamil Nadu1.691.722%26,39232,84924%
Telangana1.020.87-15%15,98816,7275%
Tripura0.270.297%4,2125,56032%
Uttar Pradesh7.547.35-3%1,17,8181,40,61119%
Uttarakhand0.440.452%6,9028,65725%
West Bengal3.083.080%48,04858,96323%
Total4241-2%6,56,0467,84,18120%

Sources: Report of 14th and 15th Finance Commission (2020-21); Union Budget Documents 2020-21

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