The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its first 2026 monsoon forecast. It issued the long range forecast on 13 April 2026. Notably, IMD expects below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall this year. Seasonal rain from June to September may reach 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The model error is plus or minus 5%.
What the Numbers Mean
The LPA is the average monsoon rainfall from 1971 to 2020. It stands at about 87 cm for the country. So, 92% of LPA means roughly 80 cm of rain. Moreover, IMD calls 90–95% of LPA “below normal.” Rainfall under 90% counts as “deficient.” By contrast, 96–104% is “normal.”
Chances of Each Category
IMD gives a 35% chance of deficient rain this year. Similarly, it gives a 31% chance of below-normal rain. The chance of normal rain is only 27%. Meanwhile, above-normal and excess rain have very low chances. Thus, the outlook leans clearly towards a weak season.
Why the Monsoon May Be Weak
Weak La Niña conditions now prevail over the equatorial Pacific. However, they will likely turn ENSO-neutral by June. Then, El Niño conditions may develop during the monsoon. Usually, El Niño reduces Indian monsoon rain. On the other hand, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may emerge late in the season. Also, Northern Hemisphere snow cover was slightly below normal. Both factors generally favour good rain.
Impact on Farmers and the Economy
Nearly 60% of Indian farmers depend fully on the monsoon for Kharif crops. Therefore, a weak season can hurt paddy, pulses and oilseeds. It can also push up food prices. In addition, low rain affects reservoir levels and hydropower.
Latest Update: Forecast Lowered
On 29 May 2026, IMD revised its forecast. It lowered seasonal rain to 90% of LPA, with an error of plus or minus 4%. It cited the developing El Niño as the main reason.
2026 Monsoon Forecast: Key Facts for Revision
- First forecast: 13 April 2026, 92% of LPA (±5%)
- Category: Below normal (90–95% of LPA)
- LPA: About 87 cm (1971–2020 average)
- Key driver: Likely El Niño during the season
- Revised forecast: 90% of LPA (±4%) on 29 May 2026
Why the 2026 Monsoon Forecast Matters for UPSC and UKPSC
Notably, monsoon, ENSO and IOD are core geography topics. So, remember the LPA value, the rainfall categories and the role of El Niño and IOD. Also, link the forecast with Kharif output and food inflation. For official updates, also visit the India Meteorological Department. Next, for a related story, read about the 11th NITI Aayog Governing Council meeting.
So, are you preparing for the UKPSC Upper PCS 2026 prelims? Then join our UKPSC 2026 Prelims Test Series for regular practice.